Morning Brew's Prediction Markets edition went all in on the betting-on-everything boom, and the numbers are mad. Kalshi controls more than 90% of the US prediction market with annualized revenue over $1.5 billion. Combined global trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket went from $4.5 billion in September 2025 to roughly $24 billion in April 2026, per Pew's read of data from The Block. That's not growth. That's a hockey stick on steroids.
The money men noticed. Kalshi's valuation went from $11 billion in December to $22 billion six months later (Wall Street Journal). Polymarket, valued at $350 million back in 2024, was reportedly in talks to raise at $15 billion (The Information). Bernstein reckons the whole category hits $1 trillion in annual volume by 2030. These markets are scaring DraftKings, partnering with pro sports leagues, and spoiling reality TV outcomes. Everyone's suddenly an expert on "Kalshi" at dinner.
Here's the bit they buried, and it's the bit that matters: almost nobody makes money. The WSJ found 67% of Polymarket's profits go to just 0.1% of accounts. The average user is down between $1 and $100, and the bottom 10% are down about $4,000 each. Kalshi admits there are 2.9 unprofitable users for every winner. The user base skews young and 71% male (Morning Consult), betting mostly on sports, crypto and politics. So it's a casino wearing a "wisdom of the crowds" lanyard. Same edge, fancier branding.
Zipify's Ezra Firestone fired off two emails hammering one point: you don't scale by spending more, you scale by getting more out of what you've already got. He claims he got to $200M not through bigger ad budgets but by squeezing more from every customer, order and channel.
His proof: he bought a store bleeding $400K a month because its average order value was below its cost to acquire a customer. Brutal spot to be in, that. He bolted upsells across the whole journey (product page, cart, in-checkout, post-purchase), lifted AOV by 45%, and turned a $4M loss into $500K profit in six months. The tool was his own OneClickUpsell, used by 15,000+ brands including Dr. Squatch, Victoria Beckham, Lumē and Cheech & Chong.
The pitch is a 60-day free trial, so yes, this is an ad dressed as advice. But the underlying point is solid and worth nicking: AOV is the one KPI that drags every other one up with it. Tracking a number isn't the job. Moving it is.
Morning Brew's "Making It Work" edition clocked something the US tourism board couldn't buy: World Cup visitors going viral for being delighted by ordinary America. A German fan called Freddy built a huge following documenting Taco Bell, Waffle House and Walmart and reportedly got invited to the White House. Buc-ee's, the Southern gas station chain, is pulling tourists like it's a national park. One Frenchman says Beaver Nuggets cured his snobbery.
The detail I love: ranch dip got so much overseas love that the TSA asked travelers to check ranch bottles over the 3.4-ounce carry-on limit. A Swede's post asking why pharmacy items were locked behind glass pulled a million views. Meanwhile Boston embraced Scotland's Tartan Army so hard the Sam Adams Taproom needed an emergency beer delivery.
The big number underneath the warm vibes: the US saw 5.5% fewer international visitors in 2025 than the year before, thanks to strict border policies, tensions and a wobbly economy. So the goodwill is real, but it's arriving despite the policy, not because of it.
Prediction markets are the story to watch and the trap to clock: explosive volume, eye-watering valuations, and a payout structure where the top 0.1% eat everyone else. If you're building in that space, brilliant. If you're betting in it, you're the product.
Firestone's AOV point is the actionable one. Before you go spend more on acquisition, ask whether your average order value even covers what a customer costs you. Fix the economics you already have first.
And the World Cup stuff is a free lesson in marketing: your everyday is someone else's exotic. The mundane sells when it's new to the buyer.